← CakeTCG Utrecht PTM Regional
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at CakeTCG Utrecht PTM Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.1% | -14.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 38.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.0% | +6.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -7.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 2.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.9% | -18.3 |
| Water Chess | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.7% | -21.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.7% | +6.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |